NZD USD Forecast. This suggests, that real, long term support was actually broken in early March at about 0.70 NZDUSD encouraged by a risk-off environment, sparked by the inability of Trump to pass health care legislation.
NZD USD Forecast
NZD FORECAST : Bearish
—> NZDUSD Remains Weak Helped by Central Bank Rhetoric
USD FORECAST : Neutral
—> US Dollar May Rise as Trump Jawboning, Geopolitical Fears Recede
Candlestick Patterns NZD USD
Sentiment NZD USD
Technical Summary NZD USD
Technical Analysis NZD USD
Latest News NZD USD
Buyer Beware : NZDUSD Upwards Pressure Is Limited
Reconsider buying the rebound. Taking a look at the kiwi chart, one might think that the price has bounced off a long-term support level and currently building strength to push higher.
However, another highly persuasive interpretation is that the current move higher is beguiling and merely a limited retracement, or potentially, a consolidating component of a fundamental move down.
This suggests, that real, long term support was actually broken in early March at about 0.70 NZDUSD encouraged by a risk-off environment, sparked by the inability of Trump to pass health care legislation.
Additional support can be found at 0.69 NZDUSD however a break below this level open sa new target of about 0.66 NZDUSD which also just happens to be the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As the kiwi is a risk appetite pair that is attractive during times of economic stability with its higher interest pay-out, it’s hard to see how its fundamental impetus can push it higher considering the current climate. Threats flying back and forth between North Korea, China and the USA push funds into safe-haven assets such as the yen and gold, and it’s hard to see how the White House’s more confrontational behaviour will change soon.
Secondly, inflated asset prices such as those found in real estate and stocks produce a near-term threat to the economic stability of Australasia; the headline in the respected ‘The Age’ newspaper being : “‘This thing’s gonna blow’: Top economists’ interest rate warning.”
Thirdly, a consequence of the failed repeal of Obamacare is that analysts are now saying that tax reform will be harder to push through. The US risk-on stock rally which was built on the promise of a more pro-business environment is on shaky ground. These three main factors contributing to the current uncertainty will take the steam out of any New Zealand dollar rally.
If you are looking for a high yielding carry trade in order to park your funds for a few months, consider emerging economy currencies such as the Turkish lira which may significantly appreciate following the result of the Turkish referendum and the economic stability it may produce. Also consider the Russian rouble which has potential to appreciate if the price of fossil fuels ratchet higher, following further tensions in the Middle East – it is also somewhat insulated from any American economic asset price downturn.
NZD USD Forecast, Setup Chart D1, Analysis & Signals 20-04-2017
NZD USD Forecast.